What Not To Do in 2012: an open letter to the Prime Minister of Pakistan by Irfan Aamir

Irfan Aamir: What not to do in 2012: Money Matters

What not to do in 2012 An open letter to Prime Minister By Irfan Aamir Dear Prime Minister Gillani, There are obvious reasons to believe that you think that all your troubles will go away because of your designer looks and your dedicated rhetoric for the presidency and the military establishments and not to mention your frequent conflicting statements; rest assured they won’t. And though it might be a bit late for you Mr. Prime Minister to be able to present a great economic report card for your government's performance - come Dec. 2012 - it is still not too late to focus on things you and your "massively" talented (and at times emotional) federal cabinet ministers ought to have focused on from day one about 4 years ago. Since the time is too limited now to identify things your cabinet can do, perhaps you may consider simply focusing on things that should not be done in 2012: Please do consider the following: (1) Economic policy: Your team can not afford to stick to politically charged and less meaningful narratives at all times. Tell them to start talking economy before it is too late, and sir, do not restrict your visibility to award ceremonies only. Be seen around major international business forums and events, go to the World Economic Forum – Davos is pretty – show up the ASEAN summits, bring big multimillion (make that billion?) dollar deals for the country. You need to pretend that you have an economic policy and a plan that will work wonders in the year number 5. Just do it. Pretend. (2) Monetary policy: To better understand where money comes from and where it goes and how, Mr. Prime Minister you can not afford to still not buy a book from the nearest bookstore, Idiots Guide to Understanding Monetary Policies. Surely if you will Google there is such a book waiting to be downloaded. You must understand sir that nation's wealth cannot be created by printing currency notes, digitally and physically both. And so sir, find a permanent governor for the State Bank, it might help. (3) Banker's interest: Please Mr. Prime Minster, reign in the banking industry. In the run-up to the next general elections you can NOT allow a banking debacle should your government, currently the largest customer of the commercial banks, default by stroke of some grave conspiracy to destabilize democracy in Pakistan. Ostensibly banks have no credit or 'interest' for the local industry and absolutely nothing for the trade and commerce. For how long will the banking industry continue to bank roll the government treasury bills is something that should be made public. This cannot and should not go on indefinitely sire. Do you appreciate? (4) Don't neglect entrepreneurship: You should not ignore this vital space. Google what your counterparts across the world are doing including friends like Turkey and USA and you will notice the direction where it is believed that the world economy, if there is light at the end of the tunnel, will be rescued by small businesses and entrepreneurships. They generate employment, they pay taxes and they never default on bank loans. You see banks don't loan them money hence no default by default. By not ignoring entrepreneurs you might just be able to spur some economic activity in the space of small to medium size companies. Surely Mr. Prime Minister you are aware that in some of the leading economies of the world, the biggest contribution comes from small to medium size industries and entrepreneurial sectors. (5) Education: You can not ignore education in 2012 also. Even for a formality even a trivial increase in the dedicated education budget in the annual budget – which would be the last budget of your government – will help you establish some credibility and score some points. Ideally you should not support the devolution of the Higher Education Commission; again such a step will help you restore some lost reputation. (6) Law & dis-order: You critics believe that you have no resources to ensure law and order in the country, especially in the economically central cities like Karachi. Law and order, there is a perception, is more controlled by the lawless gangs themselves, as they can freely choose to disobey and cause mayhem at their will. Another set of your critics believe that you don’t have any idea of how difficult it is to run business, specially when you have been kidnapped and being held hostage for millions for dollars ransom. Do not deny, this is a sad and stark reality, that due to threat to their lives, many leading businessmen, during your reign of power have relocated their businesses and families to safer countries. How sad, don't you think? (7) Agriculture: You are a grower yourself Mr. Prime Minister, most probably one of the top farmer of the country. Hence you must be acutely aware of the fact that despite being an agro-based economy the average annual growth of this sector in Pakistan has rarely gone above 2 percent over the last one decade. Hence you should not be lax and roll out some heart wrenching messages and share some strategies that will enable continuity of this vital sector. Did you know that despite being a top agro country of the world, Pakistan imported food inputs worth $1.52 billion in the last financial alone? And surely you know sir that half of our farm-produce, specially the more vulnerable kind, is grown but never gets to the market place and rots away on the way. This has to stop. (8) Information department: You cannot argue Mr. Prime Minster that right now your government and the political party that you belong to are not very high on the popularity scale; hence, in the year 2012 you can not afford to not look for a better team in the Information Ministry. If there are two things that can really help restore credibility for your government, it would be better communication and relationship management. You must also ponder since when has it become OK for a sitting minister to resign 'on air' and in the presence of the Prime Minster as well as the rest of your cabinet members? You must appoint a suave individual looking after the information portfolio for the country and not just the image management of a handful of your party office bearers. (9) Performance paradigm: Please do not forget to brief your many spokespersons to not defend their dismal performance in office. People at large and media in particular are keeping a close eye and perhaps the only thing that can set your government free, is the truth. Use it more often during 2012. (10) Health on nation: With your vast wisdom you should surely know Mr. Prime Minster that if you don’t look after someone's health for too long they die. And dead people are no longer able to pay taxes and play their vital role in nation development. The miniscule amount the Government of Pakistan spends on health as compared to what you spend on Wars (Terror etc) is beyond embarrassing. Especially when you consider that more than a 100,000 people in Pakistan, mostly women, children and the poor, die each year due to preventable ailments. Do not forget to increase the health budget, it will make you popular. (11) Institutions & regulators: Mr. Prime Minister, you should know that on the global indices of institutional performance Pakistan's position has been on a constant decline, some believe we are moving fast, but shockingly in the opposite direction. Please take all the institutions, some sensitive regulators as well to task during 2012. You should be seen as a hard task master in the year, you should show your deep concern for the rot that is setting in and show-business sir is a good business. (12) Foreign relations: Last but not the least please do not stay alien to this concept, relationships with other countries helps, it was established about a 1,000 years ago. If Pakistan had good friends across the globe, including the Friends of Pakistan kind, you would have known by now. So beyond losing on the economic front on the popularity front one has reasons to believe that even on the international social scene you are not on the hot invite list. Do some networking, get invited. Happy new year to you and your family. Your humble tax payer. The writer is a Karachi-based communication consultant. he can be reached at: irfan.aamir@gmail.com

Money Matters, The News: Population, Poverty and Pakistan

Money Matters

Population, poverty and Pakistan

By Irfan Aamir 

Beyond the squabbling political elite and a noisy television media, there are much more serious issues having widespread consequences that should be at the forefront of Pakistan’s governance. Regrettably, they are not. Subjects like population and poverty–both fairly unmanaged in Pakistan– are the real issues though they stand a tad away from politics and the daily dose of comic relief courtesy the leading political-actors and the many television channels. 

Pakistan’s predicaments with militancy, fragility of economy and natural disasters such as floods of 2010 and 2011 are often discussed and also make headlines even outside the country. But the reality beyond these realities is that there is an even greater threat that gets very little air-time and that this is the sheer numbers of people in Pakistan.

According to official figures the projected population for 2015 is 191 million, up from the current figure of approx 170 million, making Pakistan the sixth most populous nation on earth. By 2050, the population of Pakistan is expected to climb to fourth place in the world, only after China, India and the United States. More people means that the country will require more resources, more food and water, more energy and more jobs. More attention and earnestness from the would-be concerned-for-poor-people political leaders of the country would be required as well.

This is some seriously bad news for a country with its uneventful and unending past and present struggles to provide its people with adequate food, healthcare or education. Malnutrition rates are high and ominously climbing which are often linked to 50 percent of infant and child deaths; there is one doctor – of unknown credentials – for every 1,183 people.

Pakistan’s literacy rate stands at 57 percent which, despite official exaggerations, is amongst the lowest in the world. In the space of allocated budget as a percent of the GDP for education, Pakistan is ranked at 142 on 163 country index; countries like Maldives, Botswana and Djibouti are ranked in top 10.

While the politicos in Pakistan – who allegedly have sleepless nights thinking about ‘gharib awam’ (poor people) – may continue with their unending disagreements on electoral politics, alliances and daily TV display of contempt for each other, analyst believe that Pakistan might be running out of time.

Instability around the borders, unmanageable law and order situation in the leading economic hubs of Pakistan have and will continue to impact the economic activities in the country, presenting a very instable and grim outlook about the place and people to the outside world. Pakistan is becoming an address ‘to stay away from’ rather than ‘do business with’. In the absence of sane and sensible governance which is more practical and less rhetorical, economic failures and dearth of trust in government policies will continue to drain essential domestic and foreign investments in vital sectors. Experts believe that there is increasing evidence that investment in education, health and women’s empowerment coupled with slower population growth can contribute hugely towards poverty reduction. Do Pakistan’s leaders believe the same? Apparently not!

World Population Day - July 11th

On July 11– the World Population Day – the Prime Minister said in a message that it was very important to plan and balance population growth with the country’s resources, equitably and prudently. Interestingly, this is pretty much the same statement which is shared and released by the top seat of governance, year after year. It doesn’t matter if a democratically elected person occupies the seat or an appointee of a dictatorial regime is the incumbent, the lip service remains unchanged. What is said ‘officially’ each year might be enhanced in terms of content by the speech writers in Islamabad, what is done about this challenge is pretty well known and that is NOTHING.

Missing economic activity and the momentum coupled with increasing population continue to strain the resources as well as negatively impact the job market in Pakistan. Experts at leading international economic development institutions believe that even with the best managers at the helm, equipped with all the right resources would require years if not decades to set the path right. Pakistan’s institutions continue to plummet on the indexes of performance and transparency and the able managers continue to be disregarded and sidelined to make way for necessary political appointees of unknown credentials.

 
Experts believe that poverty, food prices and hunger are inextricably linked: ‘poverty causes hunger and while not every poor person is hungry, almost all hungry people are poor.’ Millions in Pakistan languish with daily hunger and malnourishment because they simply cannot afford to buy sufficiently nutritious food or be able to have adequate resources to grow enough food on their own. What is the state of Pakistan planning for the rapidly increasing number of poor and hungry people in the country is a question which is generally answered with very vague answers.

Leaders can continue to discuss the subject of poverty within the corridors of power, at plush hotels and in grand conferences across the world. After all it is the same issue, urgency of which prompted the leaders to recognise it as Millennium Development Goal No. 1. That was over 11 years ago in 2000. So much for leadership!

The writer is a Karachi-based communication consultant.

Irfan Aamir can be reached at: irfan.aamir@gmail.com

Money Matters: Understanding visibility economics

Money Matters

Understanding visibility economics


Monday, November 07, 2011, Zil Hajj 10, 1432 A.H


By Irfan Aamir

When the Harvard University Professor Michael Porter stands up to speak, those fortunate to be around him have no choice but to listen and listen to him very carefully. Professor Porter after all is one of the very few distinguished academics -- in the history of the prestigious institution -- who has been bestowed the title of Harvard University Professor. The professorship recognises “individuals of distinction, working on the frontiers of knowledge and in such a way as to cross the conventional boundaries of the specialties”. Professor Michael Porter, author of 18 books and award winning articles for publications like Harvard Business Review, is the most cited author in business and economics and his work has re-defined the thinking about strategy, competitiveness and economic development. 


Perhaps rightfully, he is called the father of the modern strategy field with his ideas being taught in virtually every business school in the world.





Together with his two very able co-founders, Professor Michael Porter founded and also chairs the AllWorld Network (AWN) based out of Boston, USA. The AWN was established in 2007 by Deirdre Coyle, Anne Habiby and Michael Porter at Harvard Business School after many years of promoting entrepreneurship in the developed and developing worlds.

The network has a mission to find and scale all the growth entrepreneurs of the emerging world, creating the largest information system and network of growth entrepreneurs. The AWN ranks fast growing private companies and puts them on the world map, drawing the market to them in new capital and opportunities, what the network calls Visibility Economics TM. The founders believe that the emerging world does not suffer from a capability deficit; it suffers from a visibility deficit. Without visibility, companies can’t get to the scale or prosper, believe advocate Professor Porter and the co-founders of the AWN.


The widespread economic vulnerabilities in the North and South and the ever increasing gap between the unemployed and employed continue to mount societal challenges, especially for struggling economies, making them even more vulnerable to internal and external threats. 


Founders of the network believe that governments are constrained by budget deficits and the corporate sector is contracting due to recession.


Therefore, they will not be able to create additional jobs for an increasing population in developing countries. Economic growth and employment will be driven by private small and medium enterprises.


AWN has the vision of scaling these enterprises by creating a network from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, Turkey, South Africa and other countries to interact and exchange business opportunities that enable them to grow. One way this is achieved is through a prestigious Entrepreneurship Summit at Harvard University, which is attended by the top entrepreneurs of privately-held, progressively growing companies from different countries and regions.


AWN’s concept of Visibility Economics TM is rooted in a collective belief that there is plenty of entrepreneurship excellence in developing countries. The challenge, Professor Porter’s team believes is that the world is not aware of its existence. By putting these high-performing growth enterprises on the global radar screen, the network believes it can help them attract capital, talent and customers. The fact that the criteria of AWN Pakistan Fast Growth 25 companies is the same as INC.500 -- the most prestigious ranking of private companies in the world -- gives confidence that Pakistan 25 is a world standard growth enterprise.

AllWorld Pakistan 25 Winners and Partners
with Pakistan Minister for Finance and
 U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter

Pakistan is not known for entrepreneurship due to the constant media coverage of the many security challenges that the country faces. Pakistan 25 broke the AWN record in October 2010, with the largest number of applications in the shortest period of time, highest average revenue per company and growth rate of winning companies at an impressive 81 percent compared to the network’s other countries’ average of 41 percent. This is a clear signal that despite all odds, entrepreneurship and innovation is thriving in Pakistan. The 25 represented only a segment of a large body of entrepreneurs rearing to go and make inroads into the regional and international business space.

AWN has expanded Pakistan 25 to Pakistan Fast Growth 100 which they believe will be a true representation of the diverse economic landscape and its members, the future business ambassadors of Pakistan. The Pakistan 100 applicants will also have the opportunity to compete for Arabia 500, the premier pan-regional ranking of the fast growing private companies. Pakistan Fast Growth 100 entrepreneurs, according to the network, have been invited by the Turkish Prime Minister to Istanbul to participate in the Global Entrepreneurship Summit-- just the kind of visibility that was needed for Pakistan’s private enterprises, believe analysts.


Such is the frequency of not so positive news around uncertain and at times chaotic state of internal affairs of Pakistan that a distant view of the situation evokes nothing but disapproving perceptions. The higher growth rate of Pakistan 25 compared to those in Middle East, Asia and South Africa shows that Pakistan, despite the mounting challenges is still open for business and offers immense investment opportunities to those who are willing to take the long-term view.

The writer is a Karachi-based
communication consultant.


Irfan Aamir can be reached at:
irfan.aamir@gmail.com

Poverty and promises

Money Matters

Poverty and promises
By Irfan Aamir

When leaders deceive but not lead the way they ought to and when they make promises they don’t intend to fulfill, very bad things happen. Street rage driven by hunger and economic injustice is the catalyst of many modern day revolutions and urban movements. They are not caused by social media or cell phones alone as the establishments across the world have come to believe.

What is more unjust than the injustice itself is the omnipresent economic injustice and inequality across North and the South. Intensity of emotions is peaking and the mood of the crowd on the streets throughout the world has become ominous to say the least. Discontent with the elected leaderships of democratic societies is loud and rowdy and the 2nd decade of the 21 century appears set to be written in the annals of history as an era when the global economic system, built on the principles of the free enterprise collapsed, and political leaderships, driven rhetoric, failed their people like never before.

At the Millennium Summit in September 2000, the largest gathering of world leaders in history adopted the UN Millennium Declaration, which was ostensibly an across the board commitment to a new global partnership to reduce extreme poverty and outline a series of time-bound targets with a deadline of 2015 that were to later become known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

In 2000, the US and its many well meaning Arab and non Arab allies -- which pretty much covers the entire ‘civilized world’ -- were yet to discover the cache of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) in Iraq. Iraq had not been invaded for the 2nd time to rid it of evil leaders and the most expensive War on Terror (WOT) was yet to go on air for another year and a few months. Little had happened in the space of MDGs when things got hotter around the WMDs, followed by crude oil hikes and social chaos in the Arabian Peninsula. Understandably, global concerns for poverty eradication were replaced with fears of national security and uncertain times around things more urgent and alarming than things more important and critical.

If human life is invaluable then those lives that are lost each day due to preventable diseases, poverty and hunger are way more unfortunate than those lost as a consequence of wars and terrorism. The former is more regrettable perhaps as it also highlights the love of modern man for war and his disregard for human misery. Wars are expensive and bread is still cheap, but poverty, the trigger of extremism, perhaps is the most expensive of all things to manage. It is unfortunate and ironic that trillions for wars are easily available and none by comparison for poverty eradication.

MDGs

The targets set out by the largest gathering of world leaders outlined urgent and immediate efforts and 8 fundamental goals were outlined. The goals in order of priority are/were, End Hunger and Extreme Poverty, Universal Education, Gender Equality, Child Health, Maternal Health, Combat HIV/AIDs and Global Partnership.

The ever committed and well meaning leaders realised in the year 2000 that their long held belief that economic injustice and poverty “is an unfortunate but unalterable state of affairs” is quite wrong. They also realised that the world had become progressive, prosperous and technologically advanced to address improvement of economies and reducing hunger. What they have done in this space since and as they find themselves around the corner from 2015 can be easily described in one word, nothing.

The world congress of leaders also realised that every human being should have the opportunity to make a better life for themselves, but also noted with regret (in the year 2000) that many children in the world (then and now) grow up without this chance because they are denied their basic right to even attend primary school. “A sustainable end to the world poverty as we know it; as well as the path to peace and security requires that citizens in every country are empowered to make positive choices and provide for themselves and their families” further felt the global leadership.

It is apparent that come the deadline for the Global MDGs in 2015, many if not all the nations who committed to these targets in the year 2000 will find themselves scrambling for answers and reasons for their combined failure to achieve the goals. If the leaders have disappointed the people, media in general and the civil society groups have also done the same by staying away from the most fundamental issues and focusing on trivia and political entertainment.

At the home front, the economy might be bankrupt but the leadership in Pakistan, rulers and the non rulers, delusional as it may be is still up to brims with misplaced confidence, lack of vision and driven more by concocted recipes of rhetorical expressions. From primary health to primary education, the shambolic state of institutions in Pakistan has moved in one direction and that is DOWN the rankings in all the global indexes of performance and competitiveness. These are not very happy times for those who are led continuously into believing that the next regime will be a better one. Leaders can be oblivious, but those being led are NOT. Not anymore.

“One of the darkest characteristics of poverty is that it seems to prey on the vulnerable and defenseless.” – www.endpoverty2015.org

The writer is a Karachi-based communication consultant.
Irfan can be reached at his email: irfan.aamir@gmail.com

a Global Disorder

A global disorder

By Irfan Aamir

One needs to have a deep understanding of Pakistan’s current political and economic direction, which despite the looming global economic and public debt crises still appears driven more by rhetoric and random decision making rather than planning and policy. However, one may not have to undertake a deep study to understand this impasse as most numbers are disappointing and challenges appear ominously skewed against Pakistan’s economic and political managers. How dismally Pakistan has performed on many global performance indexes across the various categories of governance can be easily browsed, though it may be hard to digest.

Pakistan’s political and economic news still read no different than they did 8 years ago, with monetary deficit, dearth of foreign investment and a looming power crisis as the main highlights. Past governments as well as the one today have stood committed to address all these challenges, which is exactly what the current incumbents have been saying since they took power almost 4 years ago. Government’s domestic debt, despite the recent rather generous slash in discount rate, still looks like a fallacy about to fall and bubble ready to burst. State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) governors may come or go, but the government will continue to borrow by printing currency at the rate of a billion dollars per month and keep handing out monetary policies with 2 months shelve-lives, if not less.  Such is the adolescent treatment to things that require serious responsibility and a much higher maturity level.

On the international economic scene ‘things’ don’t look so great either, in fact they haven’t looked this grim in the recorded history of human economics. As some economists and thinkers are putting it, the only thing that looks certain is more uncertainty. “Un-known unknowns” as the former US Defence Secretary would probably love to brand this imbroglio. The inevitability of an uncertain but evident change in global economic order is kicking some serious clouds of doubts and fears, making the entire system jitterier and lacking positive sentiments.

When the global finance managers and economic leaders were able to deliver some recovery in late 2009-10, ostensibly by pressing their governments to pump in trillions of dollars and euros for interventions and bankrolling the multibillion dollar corporations in the West, many thought that the global economic crisis had been contained. Recent developments, nevertheless, indicate that ‘financial market volatility’ is here to stay for the foreseeable future. What is becoming more apparent is that the recent short-term macroeconomic or regulatory policy initiatives in a number of economies across the world, especially the West, have failed to provide the desired confidence while the planners appear sans any plans for a long-term economic growth. Is it time to scramble?

Recently released Global Agenda Survey 2011 by the World Economic Forum (WEF) only confirms the varied fears and doubts everyone has about the current unending economic uncertainty. Global Agenda Council members were asked to identify ‘the’ most important international trends and how they would impact the global economy, society and environment in the next 12-18 months. The presentation, which identifies 20 trends that can and will impact the way people do business, how societies co-exist and what the Global Agenda Council members have to say about the trends can assuredly trigger some nerves and it is about time that they did. 
Of the trends highlighted in the WEF Global Agenda Survey 2011, analysts believe many are already at work at home in Pakistan.



Public Debt Crisis and Weakening Job Market are ranked as the ‘most important’ global trends and challenges. As bizarre as the relevance may appear, in case of Pakistan both these trends are not only visible but look fairly unmanageable at this point.  A country which borrows more than it has the capacity to earn or service, and is facing a mounting debt crisis that it is scrambling to service with no donors or Friends of Pakistan around reaching for their cheque books. What is even more serious is that the economy is not producing jobs either. By the admission of the Planning Commission itself, Pakistan needs to produce 1.5 million jobs each year consistently for the next few years. The economy, however, is producing only 0.3 million by government’s own estimates.
 
Some other rather disturbing trends and challenges for the next 18 months listed high on the top ten in the Global Agenda Survey 2011 are Economic Inequality and Social Unrest, crucial areas where Pakistan has demonstrated a lower level of excellence consistently. What is as annoying is that the state in which Pakistan and its economy is today isn’t the doing of ‘enemy nations’ but mostly of those civilian leaders who allegedly want to work for the people and those military leaders who were politically elected to decide the fate of our country. Promises and unending rhetoric is the most consistent thing about a very inconsistently managed country and its leaders. The question is, how long can they continue to befool or mislead?

The writer is a Karachi-based communication consultant.

irfan.aamir@gmail.com






With the courtesy of Money Matters, The News International