Global Cooperation Urgently Needed to Govern Risks of Advanced AI, Warns New Report.
World Leaders in Artificial Intelligence Explain Future Possibilities.
A new report by The Millennium Project warns that advanced artificial intelligence systems could emerge sooner than expected, posing unprecedented risks unless prudent governance frameworks are rapidly put in place.
AGI could arise in the next few years, representing an “intelligence explosion” that creates AI surpassing human abilities, the report states. Lack of governance could lead to catastrophic outcomes, including existential threats to humanity if such systems are misaligned with human values and interests. The report finds that no existing governance models are adequately prepared to manage the risks and opportunities posed by artificial general intelligence (AGI). It calls for rapid development of a new kind of flexible governance that can match and anticipate the pace of AI change and provide the necessary safeguards while not stifling the promises of an advanced AI.
"AGI is closer than any time before—the next advance could surpass human intelligence," the report quotes Ilya Sutskever, co-founder of OpenAI. "Alignment with human values is critical but challenging." Ben Goertzel, author of AGI Revolution added: “It is more about WHO controls the development and use of AGI than a list of ethics.”
Other key findings include:
Because the benefits of AGI are so great in medicine, education, management, and productivity, corporations are racing to be first.
Because AGI will increase political power, governments are racing to be first.
International cooperation is essential but threatened by competitive tensions among nations and corporations racing for AI supremacy. The shared risks may compel collaboration, but overcoming distrust poses an enormous challenge.
Extraordinary enforcement powers may be needed for governance to be trusted and effective globally, potentially including military capabilities.
Although controversial, proposals to limit research and development may be needed to allow time to design and implement management solutions.
The window for developing effective governance is short, demanding unprecedented collaboration.
"We’re all in this boat together—if it goes badly, we’re all doomed," the report quotes Oxford professor Nick Bostrom.
The Millennium Project is calling for urgent action to create AGI governance and alignment at national and international levels before advanced AI exceeds humanity's ability to control it safely. “If we don’t get an UN Convention on AGI and a UN AGI Agency to enforce rules, guardrails, auditing, and verification right, then various forms of Artificial Supper Intelligence could emerge beyond our control and not to our liking,” says Jerome Glenn, CEO of The Millennium Project.
With stakes potentially including human extinction, the report warns we can ill afford delay in mobilizing global cooperation.
This work was supported by the Dubai Future Foundation and general support from the Future of Life Institute. The Millennium Project is an international participatory think tank with 70 Nodes around the world and three regional networks; it was established in 1996 and has published over 60 futures research projects based on international judgments.
Pakistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events. A recent article by Amir Jahangir for the Narratives Magazine, that How these impacts pose significant challenges to the country’s agriculture, water resources, and overall socio-economic development.
PAKISTAN IS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCLUDING RISING TEMPERATURES, CHANGING PRECIPITATION PATTERNS, AND INCREASED FREQUENCY OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS. THESE IMPACTS POSE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES TO THE COUNTRY’S AGRICULTURE, WATER RESOURCES, AND OVERALL SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
Each year, Pakistan sees approximately 3.6 to 5 million tonnes of crop residues being burned in fields. This practice not only contributes to air pollution but also exacerbates climate change. By utilizing biomass energy, which is derived from organic materials like crop residues, wood, and animal waste, the country can transition away from carbon-intensive fossil fuels and move towards a more sustainable energy source. By channeling biomass energy.
Pakistan has launched an ambitious initiative called the Pakistan Environment Trust (PET), having a project called BioVentures, aimed at harnessing biomass energy to reduce emissions and improve air quality. The initiative is under Net Zero Pakistan (NZP), a project of the Pakistan Environment Trust (PET). This is an initiative of the nonprofit organization’s focus on sustainability, which seeks to establish a national-level biomass supply chain. BioVentures aims to replace the carbon-intensive fossil fuels used in industries with cleaner and more sustainable alternatives.
Pakistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events. These impacts pose significant challenges to the country’s agriculture, water resources, and overall socio-economic development.
By reducing emissions and improving air-quality through the adoption of biomass energy, BioVentures directly contributes to mitigating climate change. It helps Pakistan in its efforts to achieve its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, which involve reducing emissions, increasing renewable energy capacity, and promoting sustainable development.
Furthermore, the BioVentures project aligns with Pakistan’s broader climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The country’s Climate Change Policy Framework and the National Climate Change Policy highlight the importance of promoting clean and renewable energy sources to address the challenges posed by climate change. BioVentures, by utilizing biomass energy, supports these policy objectives and contributes to Pakistan’s overall climate change resilience.
By reducing emissions from biomass burning and promoting sustainable energy practices, Pakistan Environment Trust, not only helps mitigate climate change but also enhances Pakistan’s climate resilience. It provides an opportunity to diversify the country’s energy mix, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and strengthen its climate change adaptation efforts.
Pakistan is grappling with pressing climate change challenges, characterized by a complex interplay of contributing factors and far-reaching impacts. Understanding these factors is crucial for devising effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Contributing Factors to Climate Change and Their Impacts:
Contributing Factors to Climate Change and Their Impacts
Greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for approximately 50% of the problem, drive global warming, alter precipitation patterns, and accelerate glacier melting, thereby affecting water availability and exacerbating coastal erosion. Deforestation, responsible for 15% of emissions, leads to carbon sink loss and biodiversity depletion. Agriculture, contributing 25%, emits methane from livestock and rice cultivation while also experiencing land degradation and water scarcity. The energy sector, accounting for 20%, is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, raising concerns about air pollution and energy price vulnerability. Industrial processes (10%) emit greenhouse gases and contribute to pollution, while inadequate waste management (5%) leads to methane emissions and environmental contamination.
This understanding emphasizes the need for targeted actions to tackle these factors and mitigate their impacts on Pakistan’s environment and society. As climate change is a complex issue with many contributing factors, both natural and human-caused. Some of the complex contributing factors to climate change in Pakistan include:
The location of Pakistan: Pakistan is located in a region that is already prone to extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts. This makes the country more vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
The country’s topography: Pakistan is a mountainous country with a diverse range of ecosystems. This makes it difficult to manage the impact of climate change on the environment and human health.
The country’s population: Pakistan has a large and growing population. This puts a strain on the country’s resources and makes it more difficult to adapt to the effects of climate change.
The country’s economy: Pakistan is a developing country with a relatively low per capita income. This makes it difficult for the government to invest in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
The country’s political instability: Pakistan has a history of political instability. This makes it difficult to develop and implement long-term climate change policies.
These are just some of the complex contributing factors to climate change in Pakistan. It is important to note that these factors interact with each other in complex ways, making it difficult to predict the exact impact of climate change on the country.
Pakistan’s contributing factors to climate change in terms of impact and percentage contribution:
Pakistan’s contributing factors to climate change in terms of impact and percentage contribution.
Pakistan Environment Trust’s (PET) project BioVentures aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and reinforces the country’s commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The project directly contributes to several SDGs, including Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), Goal 13 (Climate Action), and Goal 15 (Life on Land). By promoting renewable biomass energy, Pakistan can make significant progress in achieving these goals.
The SDGs provide a comprehensive framework for countries to address social, economic, and environmental challenges while promoting sustainable development. Pakistan recognizes the importance of aligning its initiatives with the SDGs and has integrated them into its national development plans and policies. The BioVentures project exemplifies Pakistan’s dedication to taking concrete actions that support the SDGs and contribute to the global effort of achieving a sustainable future.
Furthermore, Pakistan has made a commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, in line with the global Net Zero movement. Through initiatives like BioVentures, Pakistan demonstrates its determination to transition towards a low-carbon economy and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. By actively pursuing clean and sustainable energy solutions, Pakistan is positioning itself as a leader in climate action and showing its commitment to the international community’s collective goal of limiting global warming.
How the NetZero framework aligns with specific targets & indicators of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals:
How the NetZero framework aligns with specific targets & indicators of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
By integrating the principles of Net Zero with the specific targets and indicators of these SDGs, the framework ensures a comprehensive and coordinated approach towards sustainable development, climate action, and achieving a carbon-neutral future.
The successful implementation of the BioVentures project will not only contribute to Pakistan’s national goals but also serve as a model for other countries striving to achieve net-zero emissions. It showcases Pakistan’s dedication to sustainability and highlights the country’s potential to become a frontrunner in renewable energy adoption.
Net Zero Effect to be Achieved by Pakistan in 2050
With the SDGs as a guiding framework and a commitment to the Net Zero agenda, Pakistan is poised to make significant strides in addressing climate change, improving air quality, and promoting sustainable development. The BioVentures project is a testament to Pakistan’s determination to create a greener and more resilient future, and it sets a positive precedent for other countries to follow suit.
BioVentures has the potential to bring about significant environmental benefits. The project aims to reduce emissions by around 15 MtCO2e over a 10-year period, thereby mitigating the country’s carbon footprint. Moreover, by replacing the burning of crop residues with biomass energy, air quality in Pakistan is expected to improve, addressing one of the country’s pressing concerns.
NZP has enlisted the expertise of industry leaders and advisors to guide the implementation of BioVentures. Their collective knowledge will ensure the project’s success and impact. The initiative has already secured an initial investment of $100,000, demonstrating the commitment and support it has garnered.
Currently, in the feasibility study phase, BioVentures is projected to be completed by October 2023. Upon successful outcomes, a pilot project will be launched towards the end of 2024, setting the stage for broader implementation.
NZP’s focus extends beyond BioVentures. The Pakistan Environment Trust (PET) the parent body of NetZero Pakistan (NZP) is actively involved in various other sustainability initiatives, including knowledge creation, international collaboration, and industry events. By promoting sustainable practices and fostering partnerships, PET aims to drive positive change in Pakistan’s energy and climate change landscape.
The launch of BioVentures marks a significant milestone in Pakistan’s journey towards cleaner and greener futures. By leveraging biomass energy, the country can take meaningful steps to reduce emissions, combat air pollution, and pave the way for a more sustainable and prosperous future.
The writer is a global competitiveness, risk, and development expert. He leads Mishal Pakistan, the country partner institute of the Centre for the New Economy and Society Platform at the World Economic Forum.
